Is Donald Trump’s authoritarian-like control over the presidency coming to an end? Let’s face it, many have said that in the past and have been wrong.
But this time feels different.
The numbers
- Trump’s net approval sits at -19.5, just off an all-time low of -20.6, versus -11.6 at the same point in his first term.
- Reuters/Ipsos has him at 33% for three straight polls — below Biden’s 35% floor in October 2024.
- 71% disapprove of his handling of cost of living, including four in 10 Republicans; only 36% back the Iran war.
- Only 31% of Republicans call themselves “very enthusiastic” about voting Nov. 3 — an enthusiasm gap Democrats are winning.
🇺🇸 TRUMP JUST HIT THE LOWEST APPROVAL RATING OF HIS CAREER
— Mario Nawfal (@MarioNawfal) August 31, 2026
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll puts Trump at 33% approval, his 3rd consecutive poll at that level and down from 47% early in the term.
The Iran war is dragging heavily. Just 36% approve of it, while rising gas prices are… pic.twitter.com/48Tad3XNlv
BREAKING: FIRE HIM! Republican Sen. Thom Tillis breaks ranks and demands that Trump remove Pete Hegseth as Defense Secretary — and takes a shot at his alleged alcholism.
— Occupy Democrats (@OccupyDemocrats) September 2, 2026
This is absolutely brutal…
"I thank @SecArmy Dan Driscoll for his leadership to our Army and service to… pic.twitter.com/RhMJX2cdVy
And what about the defections
- The clearest evidence of erosion is not in polling but in the Senate. Majority Leader John Thune refused Trump’s demand to freeze Senate business for the SAVE America Act and refused to kill the filibuster. (The former would hand the White House control over election administration); And Senators Cornyn and Tillis initially blocked the Blanche AG nomination over his IRS immunity deal.
- In a two-week stretch in June, small Republican factions in both chambers joined Democrats to rebuke Trump over the Iran war, reject $1 billion in funding tied to his White House ballroom project, and force a retreat on a proposed $1.8 billion fund.
The kingmaker slips - Republican primary voters have rejected 10 Trump-endorsed candidates for Congress or statewide office this cycle — as many as lost in the 2018, 2020 and 2024 primaries combined, and approaching the record of 12 set in 2022.
- Six of those 10 losses came in August alone: Megan Degenfelder in Wyoming, Rep. Cory Mills and Catalina Lauf in Florida, Mike Lindell in Minnesota, Rep. Andy Ogles in Tennessee, and Amir Hassan in Michigan. In gubernatorial primaries where Trump was not backing an incumbent, his candidates have lost five of 12 — 42%.
- Republicans are openly debating whether Trump should campaign with them — “He cannot come.”
Vibes - Karoline Leavitt’s exit, Trump-endorsed primary losers, no new major initiatives, and viral clips of him dozing at the NBA Finals have fueled explicit lame-duck and JD Vance-succession talk.
- Trump turned 80 on June 14. A February Reuters/Ipsos poll found 61% of Americans believe he has become more erratic with age; an April survey found majority concern about his temperament and mental sharpness. He has traveled little since the Iran war began, and video of him apparently dozing at an NBA Finals game in June circulated widely.
Bottom line
What is ending is not Trump’s presidency; but it could be his monopoly on Republican behavior. For a decade, the operative assumption in Washington was that crossing him would result in a political death sentence. That assumption is now being tested weekly — by Thune, by Cornyn, by primary electorates in Wyoming and Florida and Minnesota.
That is a real and consequential change – But it is not the same thing as the show being over.
Whether Donald Trump is going to be a “lame duck” president as we know it remains to be seen. In sone ways, it doesn’t matter what happens midterm elections; regardless of which party wins control of Congress (or maintains control), he will remain at the helm of the federal bureaucracy, the U.S. Justice Department, and the United States Military.
Legislative weakness provides little to no constraint on the ability for the President to take unilateral action. Additionally, the Supreme Court’s unfortunate decision to overturn Humphrey’s Executor handed him — and every future president — authority over independent agencies that no amount of bad polling can claw back.
Be prepared for a battle… in both the 2026 midterm elections and again in 2028 during the next presidential election. The Administration will stop at nothing to maintain its grip on power — legally or illegally.
