Yes — New Hampshire can become a very real danger to Democrats in 2026.
The seat currently being vacated by retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen was initially considered to be one of the safer seats for Democrats; however, the competition has tightened significantly, which prompted Inside Elections to move this race from Tilt Democratic to Toss-Up on September 3. However, Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball continue to view this race slightly more favorably toward the Democrat, classifying it as Leans Democratic.
Moderate Republican John Sununu is a former U.S. senator and member of one of New Hampshire’s best-known political families. In November, he will face Democratic nominee Rep. Chris Pappas for the aforementioned seat.
An August University of New Hampshire poll actually had Sununu ahead of Pappas 45% to 43%, although another August poll from Saint Anselm showed Pappas leading Sununu 48% to 41%. In other words, polling is conflicting, but the race is clearly competitive.
Why Democrats should worry about New Hampshire
While New Hampshire has trended Democratic in all federal elections since 2008, the state is far from a “Democratic lock.”
It is well known that New Hampshire’s large block of moderate, unaffiliated voters often make statewide elections there unpredictable.
So don’t be fooled by Democratic wins there of late; New Hampshire is more moderate than liberal.
Why Democrats may still have the upper hand
Congressman Pappas has demonstrated success by winning the highly competitive First Congressional District there. He also enjoys endorsements from several high profile Democrats including Senators Jeanne Shaheen and Maggie Hassan, and has raised a significant amount of money.
Additionally, outside of the UNH poll showing Sununu ahead of Pappas at 45% – 43%, the overall polling landscape does not appear to be nearly as adverse to Democrats as suggested by that one poll. Is it an outlier?
Prediction: Pappas, but by a hair
Given the current political climate, New Hampshire’s recent voting history in Federal elections, and Congressman Pappas’s proven track record of attracting swing voters in close elections, Democrats have a small advantage. However, with Sununu’s overall credibility as a polished candidate, his moderate platform, and his family name in New Hampshire, it’s certainly possible he could score the upset.
I like Pappas’s chances primarily for one reason. In the 2024 presidential race during an anti-Democrat political climate, New Hampshire still supported the Democrat by almost 3 percentage points. Under favorable Republican circumstances, they still favored Kamala Harris. Hence, it’s more likely this year, in a favorable Democratic envioronment, they will, again, lean towards the Democrat.
But Sununu has a real chance because he’s a moderate Republican (not MAGA), has served in the Senate before, and the Sununu brand is strong in the state. The drawback is that he’ll likely vote for Republican leadership, even MAGA, for Senate committee leadership positions.
There was a similar situation in Maryland in 2024. It’s popular, former two-term former Republican governor, Larry Hogan, was soundly beaten by a relative unknown when he ran for the U.S Senate. Marylanders liked his moderate, anti-Trump approach as governor but were uncomfortable with him in the Senate because there was an “R” next to his name.
Had Hogan pledged to vote for Democrats for Senate leadership positions, the result may have been different.
The stakes are huge. The current party split in the U.S. Senate stands at 53-47, therefore Democrats require a net gain of four (4) seats to achieve a majority of the Senate. If Democrats lose New Hampshire, they will need to find an additional Republican-held Senate seat to flip elsewhere in order to achieve their goal of gaining control of the U.S. Senate.
In summary, what was once considered to be one of the Democratic Party’s safest senate seats in the country has now evolved into one of the most important contests – and one that may ultimately determine control of the U.S. Senate.
