A lot of White nationalists believe in the debunked Great Conspiracy Theory, a false far-right ideology asserting that White European and American populations are being deliberately replaced by non-white immigrants through mass migration and lower birth rates.
Demographic change is real, but the evidence points to broad economic, social and fertility trends—not a coordinated plot to replace one population with another.
People worldwide simply aren’t having the number of kids as folks in the past.
Enter China.
The most over-populated nation in the world in the 1990s, China’s birthrate is plummeting, In fact, many schools where children were once educated are now being turned into places for the elderly.
FACT: China’s population was previously so enormous, the government implemented a one-child policy, which had been introduced around 1980 to slow population growth.
In 2024, China reported approximately 9.54 million births compared with about 18.8 million births in 2016 at the close of the one child policy. This resulted in significantly fewer children attending school resulting in over 10,000 closing down. According to official Chinese data, there are currently (2024) around 53,000 fewer kindergarten locations then existed (295,000) in 2021.
At the same time, China is experiencing a rapid aging of its population. Those aged 60 or older account for nearly 22 percent of the total population in China by the end of 2024, which will result in increased demands for eldercare and community-based services.
This combination of factors has led to what could be described as an unorthodox form of adaptive re-use of buildings. Reuters documents formerly used as kindergartens being re-purposed as eldercare centers. Other schools are being converted into elder-service based spaces as local government and private business respond to both declining enrollment and increasing needs among their older resident populations.
The trend highlights China’s overall demographic challenges — when there are fewer children in each generation, there will ultimately be fewer working adults to support an ever-growing elderly population.
The Chinese Government has implemented new programs designed to promote
marriage and increase births along with the expansion of eldercare resources available.
However, reversing these demographic trends after multiple generations of very low fertility rates will be extremely difficult.
Why are birth rates dropping?
Birth rates are shrinking across much of the world, and researchers generally find no single cause. Instead, several enormous social and economic changes are happening simultaneously.
FACT: According to the latest comprehensive United Nations demographic data, the global fertility rate fell from 3.31 children per woman in 1990 to about 2.25 in 2024. More than half of all countries and territories are now below the replacement level of roughly 2.1 children per woman.
A country-by-country compilation based on the UN data puts 99 of 194 countries below replacement fertility. The UN’s slightly broader definition, which includes additional territories and areas, puts the share at about 55%. Those low-fertility places contain more than two-thirds of the world’s population.
Why is population declining in more than half the countries?
- People are having children later
- Children have become expensive
- Women have more choices
- Marriage and relationships are changing
- Urbanization favors smaller families
- Improved contraception methods
- Economic insecurity matters
- Desired family size has fallen.
Japan and South Korea, and other governments have spent heavily trying to increase fertility, with limited results.
So, there is no attempt to replace White Americans or Europeans.
White nationalists, take heed.
