A new InsiderAdvantage poll in Minnesota finds Peggy Flanagan (D) leading Michele Tafoya (R) in the U.S. Senate race, 46% to 45%, with Rebecca Whiting (L) at 2% and Marisa Simonetti (I) at 1%.
Wow! It’s a bit shocking to see a Republican running neck-and-neck in Minnesota in 2026 – Especially considering President Donald Trump’s approval ratings and the widespread disappointment over high prices.
A Tafoya win, which would flip the seat to Republicans, is quite possible.
If you’re into polling like me, you’re always weary about the slight left lean pollsters have shown since 2016. Oftentimes, a Democrat will lose a race that’s up for grabs (according to the polls) or will win by fewer percentage points than expected. In 2020, even presidential candidate Joe Biden won by a closer-than-expected margin. And there have been more.
Other examples
In Maine in 2020, Democrat Sara Gideon repeatedly led Republican Susan Collins in the polls, sometimes by as much as seven points in the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average, yet Collins won by nearly nine points. In North Carolina that same year, Democrat Cal Cunningham led in the RCP average by 2.6 percentage points but lost to Republican Thom Tillis by 1.8.
And in Pennsylvania in 2024, Democratic Sen. Bob Casey led by 1.8 via the the aforementioned polling aggregate on Election Day, but Republican Dave McCormick narrowly defeated him by 0.2. Together, these races illustrate that even late polling can underestimate Republican candidates and that a modest polling lead is not a guarantee of victory.
If there’s going to be a small upset, it’ll likely be the Republican who pulls it off. As a result, if you’re a Democrat looking for reasons to be optimistic about the 2026 Minnesota U.S. Senate race, are there any?
Yes, there’s a small one. Well, two.
2024 vs 2026
In the 2024 Minnesota Senate race, Democrat Amy Klobuchar outperformed the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average by nearly 3 points (15.0 vs 13) when she defeated Republican challenger Royce White. Because that race was recent and Minnesota’s other Senate seat was at-stake, it’s serves as highly relevant comparison to the upcoming race. Pollsters underestimated the Democrat slightly and may be doing the same this year. If pollsters are using the same methodology this year, it’s to Flanagan’s slight advantage.
By the way, RCP has Flanagan ahead by 1.6 (as of Sep 30). If you’re Flanagan, you’d like to head into Election Day with a 3.8 percent RCP lead or greater. And at minimum, at least 2 percent.
Despite how close the polls are, Polymarket still gives Flanagan a 90-92 percent chance of winning (as of Sep 30). Granted, the folks gambling aren’t professional pollsters but a lot of people like Flanagan’s chances a lot more than Tafoya’s so the wide spread accounts for something.
And that brings us to the second reason. Polymarket is probably looking at the same thing I am.
Minnesota’s blue state status
Minnesota, unlike Maine, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania referenced above, is still a thoroughly blue state.
Imagine two boxers standing in the ring after an extremely close fight, waiting for the judges’ decision. If the bout took place in Boxer A’s hometown, history suggests he may have a slight edge on the scorecards. That certainly doesn’t guarantee a victory—the other fighter can still win—but the hometown advantage can matter when the contest is close. Minnesota’s Democratic lean can be viewed in much the same way: it doesn’t guarantee the Democratic candidate will win a tight Senate race, but the state’s recent voting history may provide a modest structural advantage when the electorate is otherwise closely divided.
Summary
This is not a prediction. With a race this close, a lot can happen in five weeks. Michele Tafoya is a likable former NFL personality and that carries some weight. Moreover, Flanagan is not an incumbent nor is she as popular as Minnesota’s 2024 Democrat candidate, Sen. Amy Klobuchar.
If I had to wager on Sep 30, I’d bet on Flanagan but I certainly wouldn’t dig deep into my wallet.
