Why Latino Voters Are Turning on Trump

President Trump’s big gains with Latino voters in 2024 are slipping away. He won 48% of them that year, the best showing for a Republican in decades, according to Pew Research Center. Now Democrats lead among Hispanic likely voters by 35 points, 64% to 29%, in the race for Congress, The New York Times reported.

Why is this happening?

It’s not entirely due to immigration. In fact, immigration isn’t even a biggest factor. Hispanics who previously supported Trump seem less concerned by the controversial tactics of ICE.

So, do you remember the famous political catchphrase coined by political strategist James Carville in 1992?

“It’s the economy, stupid.”

Prices are the main reason. Many Latino voters supported Trump because they expected costs to come down, and instead they kept rising.

Only 8% of Hispanic voters approve of how he’s handling the cost of living, according to Times/Siena polling.

Latinos make up a big share of wage workers, so rising costs hit them fast, Equis Research co-founder Stephanie Valencia told Vox.

In a recent survey of Latino voters in 17 competitive House districts, the economy remained their top concern, and 62% said they trusted congressional Democrats more to lower prices versus 36% who trusted Republicans. Earlier Pew research found 61% of Latino adults believed Trump’s economic policies had made economic conditions worse.

Immigration enforcement is the second reason, and for many it’s personal. More than half of Latino adults know someone affected by the crackdown, an AP-NORC poll found. Many had believed deportations would focus on criminals, even though Trump repeatedly insisted ICE would go after EVERYONE who was in the U.S. illegally. If ICE thinks they can easily capture a 68 year-old grandmother who has no criminal record, they will prioritize her.

Only about 30% of detained migrants have had criminal records, El País reported.

One in four Latino Trump voters say they wouldn’t back him again, according to UnidosUS polling. And Florida Republican Rep. María Elvira Salazar has warned Trump that the Hispanics who helped elect him “feel betrayed today.”

Now that’s class… NOT!

Also, AP-NORC polling this spring found especially weak ratings for Trump’s immigration policies among younger Hispanic adults: only 18% approved of his handling of immigration in that survey.

Keep in mind
Dissatisfaction with Trump does not automatically translate into support for Democrats; some voters interviewed described themselves as politically undecided. Nearly one in five Latino voters remain undecided. Hence, Valencia, uses the term “swinging giant” to describe this demographic of undecideds.

2026 Midterms
If you’re a political candidate and have a “R” next to your name, most voters will link you to Trump. That’s usually how it works.

Biden, Hillary, and Obama.
Both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton won strong majorities of the Hispanic vote in general elections.

In 2008 and 2012, Obama won 67% and 71% of the Latino vote. And in 2016, Hillary Clinton, as the Democratic presidential nominee, won 65% to 66% of the Latino vote against Trump. Joe Biden, in 2020, didn’t fair as well as his two most recent predecessors but still collected 61% of the Hispanic vote, according to Pew.

Opinion
Hispanics, who comprise about 20% percent of the U.S. population, have tremendous sway in elections. Democrats should aim to garner 2/3 (67%) of the Latino vote while Republicans should attempt to receive at least 42 to 45% percent with Latinos. Those numbers should serve as indication of how close each party is to winning.

Obviously, hitting the aforementioned numbers doesn’t mean a party will definitely win; But the odds would certainly be very much in its favor.

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Lee Cleveland
Lee is the founder and Editor-in-Chief of 247Politics.org, a modern platform covering timely, engaging political and cultural news and commentary.
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