The world isn’t having enough children to replace itself. That’s the finding from economists Jesús Fernández-Villaverde and Patrick Norrick, who say birth rates have dropped in 219 of 236 countries and that humanity has likely crossed below the line for the first time in history.
They expect the global population to top out near nine billion around 2056 and fall after that. Government programs meant to encourage births, they find, hardly help. So, as people are having fewer kids, the senior demographic is expanding.
In the report titled An Aging World: 2025 which was published on August 31, the United States Census Bureau indicates that in 2025 the portion of the world’s total population aged 65+ exceeded the portion of the world’s population under the age of 5; this is a first in recorded history.
And the census projects the 65-and-older share of the global population will rise from 10.5% in 2025 to 19.6% in 2060 — close to a doubling in 35 years. And by 2060, nearly one in five people worldwide will be 65 or older, up from about one in ten today.
America ages slowly while the world sprints
Today, according to the Census, 18.9% of the U.S. population was 65 or older in 2025, and that demographic is projected to reach 23.4% by 2060. That will move the U.S., currently the 48th oldest country of 227, to a projected 110th — not because America will get younger, but because roughly 60 other countries will get older quicker.
The oldest country, and 2060 projections
Japan is the oldest country today at 29.7% over 65. South Korea is projected to take that title by 2060 at 41% — meaning that more than two in five South Koreans will be 65+. And the percentage of 65+ in Europe will surge from 21% to 30.8%.
Further, according to the Census Bureau data, one of the primary drivers of this trend is declining fertility rates: Seventy-one percent (71%) of all inhabitants on Earth live in countries where their fertility rate is at or below replacement levels of approximately 2.1 children per woman.
The health factor and technology
Finally, another factor which is very rarely discussed when reporting on the aging of societies is the issue related to differences in health span. Although the Census Bureau does report that from 2000 through 2019 the percentage of years lived in full health for individuals in the U.S. who were sixty-five years old or older declined by more than two percentage points during this period. Additionally, according to 2016-2019 data, 73 percent of all Americans who are sixty-five years old or older suffer from at least two chronic diseases.
What about AI?
The U.S. Census Bureau’s 2060 population projections are based upon a continuation of current trends (demographic momentum) as opposed to a “longevity breakthrough.” Rather than an honest account of how long-term future A.I. could extend our life span, A.I.’s true contribution at present is to narrow the gap between the knowledge base of medicine and its application in practice — i.e., identifying cancer earlier; recognizing signs of decline sooner; or finally screening those who have been overdue for screenings. This addresses the “health span” issue cited in the census bureau report regarding more years spent living in poor health, rather than extending the number of years at the end of life.
