Democrat Mary Peltola has now crossed the 50% threshold in an Alaskan U.S. Senate race that’s all but over.
The former Democratic congresswoman has steadily expanded her lead over two-term Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan as additional ballots from the November 3 election continue to be counted.
Why the 50% Threshold Matters
Alaska uses ranked-choice voting, which allows voters to rank candidates in order of preference. If a candidate receives more than 50% of first-choice votes, that candidate wins outright without additional ranked-choice rounds. However, if nobody reaches that threshold, the lowest-performing candidates are eliminated and their supporters’ next choices are counted until a winner emerges.
There is no mathematical path for Sullivan to win this race. When the remaining votes are counted, Mary will decisively be elected as Alaska’s next United States Senator. https://t.co/4xy8DV5R6l
— Mary Peltola (@MaryPeltola) November 14, 2026
The bottom line: Peltola has built a substantial lead over Sullivan and is extremely close to an outright first-choice majority. The remaining count will determine whether she clears 50% without ranked-choice rounds.
And even if it goes to ranked-choice voting, Peltola’s lead will be nearly impossible to overcome.
The election carries historical importance. If Peltola wins, she will become the first Indigenous Alaskan elected to the U.S. Senate. Her victory would also increase the incoming Democratic Senate majority to 56 seats, according to Alaska Public Media.
Opinion / Prediction: Peltola is likely to maintain her 50% plus lead and win outright.
