“Iran said on Monday that any deal with Oman on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz would not lead to the waterway being fully reopened and that the route would remain closed until the United States agreed to demands including lifting a naval blockade,” the New York Times reports.
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U.S. crude oil climbed back above $82 a barrel Monday as hopes for a near-term U.S.–Iran agreement to restore normal shipping through the Strait of Hormuz faded. West Texas Intermediate settled at $82.13, up 5.05%, while Brent settled at $87.72.
What moved the market
- Tehran said the United States must lift its naval blockade before Iran will fully reopen the strait, while Washington’s position has also hardened.
- President Trump said the two sides were “only semi-negotiating,” undercutting earlier signals that an agreement could be close.
- Because Hormuz remains a vital route for global oil flows, any prolonged restriction threatens supply availability and adds a geopolitical risk premium to crude prices.
What does this mean for the price of gas?
It likely means higher prices at the pump, especially if oil stays above $82 or keeps climbing because a Hormuz reopening looks less probable. Gas stations do not fully reprice instantly, but upward crude moves generally begin filtering through within days and are more visibly reflected over roughly two weeks.
| Month, 2026 | Average price per barrel |
|---|---|
| February (before the war) | $64.51 |
| March | $91.38 |
| April | $100.32 |
| May | $102.13 |
| June | $84.81 |
| July | $80.46 |
Rough rule of thumb
A $1-per-barrel increase in crude translates to about 2.4 cents per gallon before timing, refinery margins, taxes, and local competition are considered. So, if oil sustains a $10 rise, a reasonable national-average estimate is roughly 20–25 cents more per gallon—not necessarily all at once or in every market.
For August, expect to see an increase of at least 5 cents per gallon. Most passenger cars hold between 12 and 16 gallons of gas, so drivers in the typical U.S. car should be looking at roughly a 70-80 cent minimum increase per trip to the gas station versus July.
Why it matters now
Crude oil is about half of the retail gasoline price, and U.S. pump prices are still linked to the global oil market despite substantial domestic production. A continuing Hormuz disruption can raise both crude and refined-fuel costs, leaving motorists exposed to additional increases.
What could change it
- A credible deal and restored shipping: Oil could retreat, eventually easing gas prices—typically more slowly than they rise.
- Continued disruption or escalation: A longer-lasting oil rally would likely push gasoline materially higher, with refinery outages, summer fuel specifications, and regional supply constraints potentially amplifying the effect.
