This afternoon, I got gas, and much to my dismay, it cost over $52 to fill my tank. It was shocking because that car is a Toyota Corolla.
Will we have to endure high gas prices all summer?
Yes.
Summer gas prices are likely to stay painful, and any honest prediction has to admit we’re dealing with a range of possible outcomes rather than one neat number. Expect gas to be expensive, with how bad it gets depending on oil markets and geopolitics.
Currently, the national average sits in the mid-$4s per gallon, roughly 40% higher than last year, with some California drivers paying over $6 while a few cheaper states sit just under $4.
Any realistic prediction for summer is built on this already high base, not the old “normal” of $3 gas. Officially, the U.S. Energy Information Administration insists that 2026’s average gas prices will be lower than 2025’s, but even its outlook admits that tight inventories and strong refinery margins will likely slow any price relief. Banks and private analysts are more pessimistic; for example, Bank of America predicts prices around $4 or higher for much of the summer.
Best-Case Scenario
If tensions between the U.S. and Iran ease, key shipping lanes like the Strait of Hormuz remain open, global growth cools a bit, and OPEC+ doesn’t slash output, Brent crude could slide from the low $100s back toward the $80s or even $70s. In that world, the national average could fall into the high‑$3s to low‑$4s ($3.70–$4.20) at times, and some Gulf Coast and Midwestern states might briefly see prices that start with a “3.” That’s the outcome households might foresee and hope for, but it’s a best‑case, not the central prediction to plan around.
High-Pain Scenario
On the other end is the high-pain scenario. If the Strait of Hormuz is partially closed or further disrupted, analysts predict Brent crude could stay at or above $100 a barrel, with spikes to $120–$130. Add in refineries running flat out but still dealing with maintenance, outages, and hurricane risks, plus tight global gasoline inventories, and the forecast gets ugly.
In the above case, the national average will be above $4.50 for most of the summer with a real chance of crossing $5 nationwide; if disruption hits at the wrong time, California will average in the mid‑$6s with some stations near $7, and even the cheapest states will be stuck in the low‑ to mid‑$4s.
That’s the sort of scenario Bank of America foresees when it warns that “pump pain” could drag on.
In terms of planning, we are not about calling the exact Fourth of July price; we’re about giving drivers a sensible band they can predict around.
In short, you don’t need to foresee an everywhere‑all‑at‑once 2022‑style spike, but you should expect that gas will remain one of the most expensive line items in your summer budget, so plan accordingly.
Expect $4–$4.75 as the most likely national average range this summer; be mentally and financially ready for something near or above $5 if Iran–U.S. tensions worsen or a major refinery goes down; and do not build a budget on the optimistic prediction of a fast slide back to $3. Expect West Coast prices to remain around $5.50–$6.25, and Gulf Coast states will be in the high $3s to low $4s.
