Maine poll shocker: Collins, 44%; Jackson, 49%

Wait, what?

And who is Troy Jackson anyway?

With previous Maine Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Graham Platner out of the race, another stands prepared.

… Or so it seems.

Former state Senate President Troy Jackson (D) is exploring a bid to replace Platner on the ballot. And recent head-to-head polling from PPP, NBC News, and Reddit shows Jackson as competitive against Republican incumbent Susan Collins.

I certainly won’t disparage @PpollingNumbers on X, but I haven’t seen this poll anywhere else. Does PPP stand for Public Policy Polling? If so, that poll doesn’t appear to be on their website.

Who is Troy Jackson?
Per Wikipedia, he’s a 58-year-old logger whose entry into politics began when he helped organize the 1998 logging blockade protesting the hiring of foreign (Canadian) workers, poor working conditions, and low wages. He served three terms in the Maine House of Representatives before being elected to the State Senate in 2008, where he subsequently became the majority leader and minority leader at different times.

When he first ran for public office, he did so as a Republican. He won his first election as an independent but switched parties in 2004 to become a member of the Democratic Party.

Interesting.

Republican (before 2002)
Independent (2002–2004)
Democratic (2004–present)

He was once a Republican and an independent. His (presumed) moderate stance will serve him well should he become the nominee. Maine loves moderates and individualists who seem to place the country’s well-being over a political party.

Although Maine leans slightly Democratic statewide today, it has a long history of ticket‑splitting, independent candidates, and close races. And with Collins being a relative moderate, who occasionally votes against President Trump and the Republican mainstream, she’ll be difficult to defeat in Maine, regardless of what the polls indicate.

That stated, the candidate most likely to unseat Collins is a left-leaning moderate or independent, not your classic liberal. And, incidentally, Maine’s other senator, Angus King, is an independent who caucuses with Democrats.

Is Jackson the one to beat Collins? Is he even moderate anymore?

So far, he looks good on paper, but don’t place too a lot of emphasis on this poll.

(Cover image courtesy of UnionCandidates.org.)

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Lee Cleveland
Lee is the Editor-in-Chief and founder of 2026PREDICT.com (predictwarn.wpenginepowered.com)—a cutting-edge platform dedicated to analyzing and tracking the accuracy of prediction markets and forecasting models.

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