“For four years, Russia has bet on outlasting Ukraine in a war of attrition. Now, as Kyiv’s drones inflict growing damage on both Russia’s army and oil industry, Moscow is finding out that time isn’t necessarily on its side,” the Wall Street Journal reports.
“Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion force is making ever-smaller gains at the front line, its losses exceed recruitment, and it is struggling to adapt to a Ukrainian drone campaign pounding its supply routes to its forward positions.”
“Meanwhile, Ukraine’s stretched army hasn’t buckled as Russia hoped and is even pushing back the invaders in places with small counterattacks. Its increasingly capable armada of drones is causing a fuel crisis in Russian-occupied Crimea and pummeling refineries deep inside Russia.”
Bloomberg: Ukraine says it hit two Russian refineries, slew of fuel tankers.
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Russia’s strategy is to wear down Ukraine and force them to quit but things haven’t gone as planned. They planned to quickly “decapitate” and easily take control of a country had been turned upside down but the war will be longer, bloodier, and much more expensive for Russia than they thought it would be.
In fact, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported in March 2022 that Ukraine had “won” the first Russian offensive. The ISW stated that the Russians did not attain its goal of capturing Kyiv, over-throwing the Ukrainian government or rapidly controlling much of the country.
So, in a sense, Ukraine has defeated Russia’s initial campaign and stopped Moscow from achieving its core war aims, but it has not yet “defeated Russia” in terms of a total military victory or full liberation of its territory.
Russia still controls about one-fifth of Ukraine, however, their total gain since earlier times in the war has been a small increase in area (about 1-2%) – But that gain has come at an enormous loss of life and machines.
Moreover, Ukraine has developed and fielded long‑range drones and cruise missiles that have the capability to deliver strikes at distances greater than 1,500 – 2,000 km from their point of departure which puts about half of Russian territory (including industrial areas) within range. Hence, places in Russia that were previously thought to be safe from attack are not.
But Ukraine isn’t attacking within Russia indiscriminately, they are focusing its attacks against strategic targets. The oil refining facilities, storage tanks and associated logistics are being targeted in order to cause fuel shortages and increase the economic cost of Russia’s efforts.
WOW! 🤩 Drone struck Russian command post in Donetsk! pic.twitter.com/wdiBYHXRbt
— MAKS 26 🇺🇦👀 (@Maks_NAFO_FELLA) July 11, 2026
Most analysts agree that Russia’s “streak of winning” has come to an end: though there are no significant changes along the front lines, Ukraine is gradually recapturing lost territory and reducing Russia’s ability to achieve any future significant military success.
Why Russia hasn’t yet been completely defeated
Russia still maintains a large force of personnel, possesses sizeable stores of artillery and missiles and has fortified defensive positions within the occupied territories. Therefore, rapid liberation of all occupied areas appears impossible.
And Ukraine still has one big vulnerability – For them to launch offensive operations and maintain its territorial gains requires a steady flow of assistance from the West. They’re getting ammunition, air defense systems, long-range fire systems, training programs and intelligence — which may be constrained by both politics and resources.
President Zelensky’s goal remains for Ukraine to become free from Russian control (“de-occupied”). However, this end-game may be achieved through either negotiation(s) or other forms of political change in Russia instead of a formal defeat in battle.
“Ukraine’s deep strike campaign has created new economic and social pressures in Russia. But even if the war looks and feels different to outside observers, its trajectory is unchanged and its end no closer than it was a year ago,” wrote Jennifer Kavanagh, Senior Fellow & Director of Military Analysis, at Defense Priorities.
