“The Ukrainian military is proving it can blow up pretty much whatever it wants,” Axios reports.
“Why it matters: Fewer and fewer places feel safe inside Russia, as oil facilities, weapons factories, convoys and bombers burn.”
___________
Kyiv characterized its deep strike capability as “long-range economic sanctions” that fit into a larger strategy to disrupt and weaken Russia’s ability to provide for its armed forces by targeting Russia’s logistical capabilities and energy networks, while also disrupting Russia’s capacity to produce munitions.
As such, Kyiv argued that refineries, depots and defense plants are legitimate military targets in lieu of Russia’s ongoing military campaign in Ukraine.
Ukraine has developed and fielded long‑range drones and cruise missiles that have the capability to deliver strikes at distances greater than 1,500 – 2,000 km from their point of departure which puts about half of Russian territory (including industrial areas) within range. Hence, places that were previously thought to be safe from attack are not.
What Ukraine is in fact targeting
Ukraine is choosing to focus its attacks against various types of target rather than all that it has technical capabilities to hit. The oil refining facilities, storage tanks and associated logistics are being targeted in order to cause fuel shortages and increase the economic cost of Russia’s efforts.
Industrial defense facilities, such as missile manufacturing, drone components manufacturing, ammunition depots, air fields, radar systems and anti-aircraft defenses are being attacked with the goal of degrading Russia’s ability to produce weapons and defend itself operationally.
And specifically selected power and infrastructure hubs (such as thermal power generation stations), have been hit to signal to Russian civilians that they will suffer from the war, just like Ukraine’s citizens are.
Russia’s long game
Russia’s central theory for winning the war in Ukraine represents a “long-term” strategy of attrition; it is based on an assumption by the Kremlin that as long as Russia can continue to wage a long and grueling conflict, its opponents (Western allies and supporters of Ukraine) will be subject to the same erosion from continued pressure as Russia itself is, and before Russia exhausts all available resources and willpower. Russian elite have consistently signaled that they believe time is on their side and that Ukraine’s advocates will ultimately fatigue, fracture politically, or be pressured economically and socially into making concessions.
