Ron Brownstein: “At 250 years, America’s (fault) lines are showing. Partisan and regional divisions now rival the most intense internal conflicts apart from the Civil War.”
“The escalating tension between the red and blue political coalitions is permeating almost every aspect of American life, particularly under the pile-driver pressure of Donald Trump’s polarizing and norm-breaking presidency. Even the commemoration of this momentous anniversary has split the country into the familiar antagonistic camps.”
“Conflict within a nation is a difficult concept to quantify, but many measures — the widening policy differences among the states; Trump’s relentless confrontations with Democratic political leaders; the virtual disappearance of bipartisan cooperation in Congress; an uptick in political violence — suggest the US is operating at the high end of the scale.”
Pew’s Beyond Red vs. Blue: The Political Typology survey shows that the gap between Republican and Democrat attitudes toward key political values have grown substantially from nearly 15 points in the late 1990s to over 30 points over the last few years. In fact, there are several values that have produced a 50 point gap in opinions — the highest gap in the history of the Pew survey.
These findings parallel the conclusions of researchers who studied congressional voting patterns indicating that elite-level polarization currently exists as extensively as it did during the post-Civil War reconstruction period.
While one may view these polarized views simply as “fluctuations” in public opinion, they represent real and institutionalized shifts in our culture.
Causes and Implications
Researchers suggest multiple factors contributing to the significant increase in polarization such as ideologically aligned parties; media systems which reward sensationalism and extremism; and demographic/geographic divisions among people with different socioeconomic characteristics, i.e. those living in cities versus rural areas or classes.
Many also note an increase in mutual delegitimization, where each side believes the opposing side is ethically/morally incorrect and a threat to safety. The polls show that majorities of both Republicans and Democrats believe the opposite party is less moral than all others. Also, many respondents think we are more divided now than ever before, even since the Civil War.
Respondents’ belief that we are in a national crisis adds to their sense of urgency. Historically, from a statistical/odds perspective, this “historic peak” model will allow us to creatively assess articles regarding gridlocks, potential violence due to politics and ways in which high levels of polarization affect voter turnout, candidate choice and election policy instability.
